Speculation has long been thought to have significant economic effects, but it is difficult to measure, making it challenging to examine these effects empirically. In this paper William Quinn, Clive Walker and CASFI's fellow John Turner measure speculation in the UK since 1785 by using business and financial reporting in The Times newspaper. Their monthly speculation index reveals four distinct epochs of speculation in the UK. Epochs of high speculation coincide with higher stock market returns and higher economic growth, while low speculation periods coincide with high levels of government debt and financial repression. They find that low interest rates foment the development of higher speculation, and that eras of higher speculation are often followed by greater banking instability.
DP20904 Speculation in the UK, 1785-2019 DP20904 "Speculation in the UK, 1785-2019" - William Quinn, John Turner and Clive Walker
Discussion Paper of John Turner et al "Speculation in the UK, 1785-2019"
Together with William Quinn and Clive Walker CASFI's fellow John Turner published their CEPR discussion paper "Speculation in the UK, 1785-2019".
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- William Quinn - Queen’s University Belfast
- John Turner - Queen's University Belfast and CASFI Fellow
- Clive Walker - Queen’s University Belfast